Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine.
- Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last.
- Delays in Western security assistance will likely make Ukraine’s energy infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian strikes.
- Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel.
- German officials confirmed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation aimed at deterring Western states, particularly Germany, from sending additional military aid to Ukraine.
- The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.
- Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.
- Russian regional administrations continue efforts to expand the aperture of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, and Kateryna Stepanenko.
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