‘No Strategic Gains for Russia’ US Intel Says – War in Ukraine Update for Dec 13

Overview:

• Record levels of attacks on Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, AFU says
• US intelligence says Russia has lost more than 13,000 troops latest Avdiivka battles
• Department of Defense outlines contents of $200 million package for Kyiv
• Ukraine troops hold the advantage at night, UK intel claims
• Drone strikes damage administrative building in Odesa
• Zelensky lauds AFU troops for regaining slag heap near Bakhmut

US DOD releases packing list of latest military supplies for Kyiv

Shortly after the announcement by US President Joe Biden on Tuesday afternoon that he had signed a $200 million presidential drawdown for Ukraine, coinciding with a visit from President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Department of Defense published the contents of that tranche of aid.

It includes:

• AIM-9M missiles for air defense
• Air defense system components
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• AGM-88 High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
• More than 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing
• Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure
• Spare parts, generators, maintenance, and other equipment

Operations: Avdiivka

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Moscow has launched what state news service Ukrinform described as the “largest number” of attacks on Ukrainian troops in the past day in the strategically critical city of Avdiivka, despite colder weather.

The General Staff reported on Facebook that its troops repelled 42 enemy attacks on Tuesday in the areas east of Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, south of Sjeverne, south of Tonenke, Pervomaiske and Nevelske in the Donetsk region.

 “Ukrainian defenders continue to restrain the enemy who does not abandon attempts to surround Avdiivka. Our warriors are steadfastly holding the defense, causing the enemy significant losses,” the post reads.

US National Security spokesperson says Russia has made “no strategic gains” in Avdiivka

Newly declassified US intelligence concerning Avdiivka highlights a very steep attrition rate for Moscow with relatively little to show for it.

“Since launching its offensive in October, we assess that the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis and over 220 combat vehicle losses-the equivalent of six maneuver battalions in equipment alone,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson told CNN. She said that the Kremlin’s offensive in Avdiivka has resulted in “no strategic gains.”

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Intelligence officials also underlined Russia’s continued resolve to keep up the attacks despite the heavy losses.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the declassified intelligence assessment also claimed that “Russian forces have lost 87 percent of the total number of their pre-war active-duty ground troops and two-thirds of the tanks in their inventory before February 24, 2022.

The declassified intelligence assessment reportedly stated that Russian forces lost 315,000 personnel out of the 360,000 personnel, 2,200 out of 3,500 tanks, and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.”

UK intel highlights Ukrainian advantage in night maneuvers

Intelligence from the UK Ministry of Defense claims that the AFU moves “mostly at night” to take advantage of Russia’s shortage of night vision goggles.

The Ministry’s daily intelligence update on Tuesday noted that in late November 2023, “a social media user claiming to be a Russian soldier serving in Kherson highlighted the shortage of night vision goggles (NVGs) and low-light cameras for unmanned aerial vehicles.”

“NVGs have frequently featured high in the lists of equipment Russian units request from their families and supporters. Ukrainian forces have often been equipped with night vision devices from international partners,” the Ministry wrote. It added that Russian training typically does not emphasize night maneuvers.

Operations: Bakhmut

As reported by Kyiv Post early on Tuesday, Ukrainian troops regained control of the waste heap in Horlivka in the Donetsk region.

“Despite challenging conditions, they retook a slagheap within Horlivka and captured enemy positions. Now our flag proudly waves over the slagheap,” President Zelensky posted on social media.

Meanwhile, Russian sources made unconfirmed claims of Moscow’s advances in the region. One Russian milblogger claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces recaptured positions near Klishchiivka (9 km south of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut) and along the O0506 (Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar) highway.

One Kremlin-affiliated military blogger admitted that poor weather conditions and ice have slowed Russian advances in the area.

Russia launches 15 drones and two missiles from Crimea, aimed at Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 15 Shahed-131/136 drones from occupied Crimea, and two Kh-59 missiles at targets in Ukraine, the ISW noted on Tuesday. Kyiv contends that national air defenses destroyed nine of the drones and both missiles.

The AFU reported that the missiles targeted the Zaporizhzhia region and Kryvyi Rih, in Dnipropetrovsk.

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also said that a Russian drone strike found its target in an administrative building in Odesa.