Russia’s airline industry is “on the verge of collapse” due to inadequate spare parts, uncertified repair services, and other systemic maintenance problems caused by sanctions, according to a hack of Kremlin records.
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR) posted the details of its latest “special cyber operation” on its Telegram channel on Thursday.
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This action was a hack into Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency “Rosaviatsiya” computer system on which it records all data relating to flight safety records, including reports on “emergency events.”
The huge volume of data obtained by HUR covered more than eighteen months’ worth of records from 2022 and 2023.
Their analysis of the information obtained led the intelligence staff to one inescapable conclusion – Russia’s civil aviation “is on the verge of collapse.”
Screenshot of the Rosaviatsiya data file system obtained by HUR
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HUR summarized the key information they had obtained:
- 185 air incidents were reported in January 2023 alone, of which 30% were classified as serious with 34 involving the SSJ100 “Sukhoi Superjet”
- There were 150 reports of aircraft technical malfunctions in the first 9 months of 2023, compared with fewer than 50 during the same period in 2022
- The most problematic areas involved key elements of the airframe including engines, hydraulic systems, flaps and software
- Russian airlines are having to resort to “uncertified” repairs and maintenance services, many with allies such as Iran because of a lack of technical specialists and insufficient domestic repair facilities
- It is estimated that of the 820 foreign-made civilian aircraft held by Russia almost 70 percent have now been subjected to uncertified service and repair using “non-authentic” spare parts
- It was estimated that by mid-2023 as much as 35 percent of Russia’s foreign fleet of aircraft have been “cannibalized” to keep the rest flying because of an acute shortage of spare parts
- Most Soviet-era aircraft have been grounded because their engines were produced in Poland and elsewhere, the supply of which has been cut off by sanctions
- In January 2023 alone, 19 of the 220 Airbus aircraft suffered technical failures with 33 among the 230 Boeing aircraft and 3 from the 21 Brazilian Embraer fleet
As Kyiv Post reported last month, following an audit of Russia’s flight safety by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in September last year, Russia was given “red flag” status, making it one of the world’s five most dangerous countries in which to fly.
The data uncovered by the HUR substantiates the ICAO’s own assessment. Kyiv’s analysis of the reported aviation incidents indicates that the majority of them, especially those involving engines, landing gear and wing mechanical operations are the result of systemic failures in Russia’s maintenance and repair regime.
HUR’s conclusion based on the information it has uncovered is that there is a continuing and increasing risk to Russia’s commercial aviation as a result of the sanctions-induced lack of spare parts, uncertified maintenance and repair, inability to update aircraft software, loss of aircraft held abroad, and restrictions on meteorological information which impacts navigation capability.
In a dramatic but not necessarily overstated final comment the HUR said: “Moscow, is exposing its population to mortal danger as it tries in every way to cover up the seemingly endless list of problems that exist within its civil aviation sector”.
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