Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for August 17: ‘Potential Pincer Preview’

Snapshot

On the southern front, Ukrainian elite units are getting some downhill at Robotyne (Melitopol axis) after the fall of Urozhaine (Mariupol axis), as a possible pincer emerges.

Analysis

After visits to the southern and eastern fronts, President Zelensky sent a rocket up his team to do more to secure drones for front-line combatants:

“In each combat brigade, warriors first ask about drones, electronic warfare, and military air defense. The answer to such questions is our work with partners to supply the necessary drones and systems, and our work here in Ukraine.

“Production is necessary. We are increasing production significantly. However, we need to systematize what is already being supplied to the troops and used.

“Drones are the ‘eyes’ and protection on the frontline. Of different ranges, for different purposes. Drones are a guarantee that people will not have to pay with their lives when drones can be used.

“Basically, everything we've recently talked about with the boys in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, in our combat brigades, is now the job of the General Staff, government officials, and the Staff. The tasks are clear.”

Operational Aspects on the Southern Front

Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Robotyne (10 kilometers south of Orikhiv) in the western Zaporizhzhia region and have likely made wider gains in the surrounding areas given weeks of consistent Ukrainian activity in the forested areas northeast of the settlement, ISW said. The relevant units would include the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, which is one of Ukraine’s best trained and equipped.

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

Pro-Russian milblogger and arch-propagandist War Gonzo conceded that Ukrainian forces were not only consistently assaulting around Verbove and Robotyne but had partial control of the latter’s northern side.

Ukrainian officials confirmed Ukrainian forces have liberated Urozhaine (9 kilometers south of Velyka Novosilka) in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area, and the Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade published footage of their personnel raising the Ukrainian flag in the center of the settlement, ISW said.

Pro-Ukrainian milblogger Karymat posted a video of house-to-house fighting to take Urozhaine.

Pro-Ukrainian milblogger and Ukrainian reserve officer, Tatarigami, Tweeted about the next points south from Urozhaine in the direction of Mariupol.

A Russian soldier at Urozhaine was reported by a Telegram channel as saying: “These troops were preparing for a deep breakthrough beyond the Surovikin line.”

Operational Aspects on Northern Front

Commenting on recent Russian assaults and attempts to stretch lines on the northern part of the front, General Oleksander Sirsky, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, said: “In connection with the complicated situation in the Kupyansk direction, the enemy is trying to break through the defenses of our troops every day, in different directions, with assault squads consisting mainly of prisoners, with the aim of blocking and later capturing Kupyansk.” He outlined recalibrations to mitigate the threat.

Other Operational Aspects

One reliable pro-Ukrainian milblogger continues to maintain that Ukraine has established double pontoon bridges across the Dnipro near Kherson and are using them to resupply a bridge head in occupied Kherson region. Ukrainian authorities have offered limited commentary on the situation.

·       Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia regional border area, and in the western Zaporizhzhia Region and did not make any confirmed advances, according to ISW.

Pro-Russian milbloggers posted about assaults by Ukrainian forces along the border between Belgorod and Ukraine – and Russian casualties.

According to the daily 18:00 update of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Russian forces launched seven missile attacks, 67 air strikes, and 30 MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. Ukraine undertook nine air strikes.

According to the General Staff, 115 Ukrainian settlements were hit by Russian artillery and/or mortar fire.

General Developments

Ukraine’s defense forces have disabled five out of six large landing ships of the Russian navy, according to Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk.

The Security Service of Ukraine did a show-and-tell of the “Sea Baby” surface drone, which was used to attack the Kerch bridge and ships of the Black Sea Fleet.

An 18-year-old boy was killed and four others injured as a result of the Russian attack on Mezhova in Dnipropetrovsk.

Pro-Russian Telegram channel Sirena reported that “more than 6.5 million rubles [$69,000] will be spent in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky on the improvement of military graves of those who gave their lives defending the fatherland during a special military operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine.”