EXPLAINED: Is Wagner Going to Invade Poland?

Wagner is recruiting new mercenaries in Belarus with conditions stipulating they must be willing to participate in fighting in Poland and Lithuania, according to Ukraine’s Center of National Resistance.

Excuse me?

You heard right – according to reports, Wagner is making preparations to potentially invade NATO countries.

What would be the consequences if they did?

If Wagner did invade Poland, it would spark what can only be described as a major international incident.

In theory, it could trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter which states that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in the exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense.”

In short, it would be NATO vs Wagner.

What is unclear is just what form this would take – anything from Polish troops taking out a few Wagner fighters to the might of NATO taking the fight into Belarus itself.

Surely Wagner can’t seriously be considering invading a NATO country?

It seems highly unlikely though the threat is enough to be causing some concern in Poland, and fanning the flames of the rumor are none other than the leaders of Belarus and Russia.

President Putin and his closest ally Alexander Lukashenko met on Sunday, July 23, for the first time since the Belarus leader helped end a mutiny by Wagner.

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Lukashenko told Putin he was keeping control of newly arrived Wagner fighters in Belarus, but that they were 'itching to invade Poland'.

“They are asking to go West, ask me for permission... to go on a trip to Warsaw, to Rzeszow,” Lukashenko said to Putin, who smiled.

“But of course, I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed.”

“We are controlling what is happening (with Wagner),” he said, adding: “They are in a bad mood.”

Does Europe take the threat seriously?

It does. Poland has declared the reinforcement of its state border security in response to the relocation of the Wagner forces to Belarus. Additionally, the Polish network was ablaze with heated debates following Lukashenko's statements.

The border that was previously delineated by a limited number of pillars and wooden lookout posts has now undergone a significant transformation. It is now full of extensive stretches of high metal fencing, equipped with thermal cameras and spotlights, spanning over several miles.

According to Reuters’ latest report from July 20, residents residing close to the border between Poland and Belarus said they could discern sounds of gunfire and helicopters following the arrival of Russia’s Wagner Group.

This group’s presence has intensified their concerns that the war in Ukraine might spill over and affect their lives.

“I’m afraid. I have a son in the army. He’s a military man. I’m worried about him, I have grandchildren. I have a disabled husband. I’m most worried about them,” a woman who lives in a Polish village near the border with Belarus said.

“Everyone says that something will happen, that something will definitely happen,” she added.

Meanwhile, some users on Polish social media aren’t taking the Wagner PMC seriously and have some very strong opinions about how such a venture would end up.

“Stupid animals barely understand the true power of Poles! The infamous bloodthirsty Wagner suicide bombers are about to receive a Darwin award... glory to Poland!”

What’s actually going on here?

Earlier this week, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) told Kyiv Post that Wagner fighters could be “utilized for informational and psychological special operations,” and keeping Poland on its toes and sowing fear and worry would certainly qualify as just that.

Whilst dismissing the threat of a Wagner attack Andrii Yusov, said: “However, they can still be utilized for Informational and psychological special operations, to unnerve both Ukraine and partners from the European Union and NATO member countries, and to divert forces and resources.”

Has Ukraine said anything else?

Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of the Presidential Office, deems the notion of a Wagner attack on a NATO country highly unpromising.

In the interview with a Russian opposition journalist, Yulia Latynina, he dismissed the threats made by Wagner PMCs against Poland, referring to them as “neither funny nor primitive jokes.”

Podolyak asserts that such an attack is implausible since the Wagner group no longer exists in its former capacity.

“Of course, this is impossible by default. There is no ‘Wagner’ today. There are a certain number of people who stay close to [Wagner PMCs commander Dmitry] Utkin, well, or close to Prigozhin. But this is a minimal number of people, the rest will definitely not play this game,” he said.

Podolyak said engaging in such a “campaign” would be at least unreasonable, as it would inevitably result in the swift defeat of the Wagner mercenaries.

“What purpose does it serve?” he questioned. “Escalating the conflict? Drawing NATO countries into the war? Only to be defeated loudly and quickly by a NATO nation? What does this ‘adventure’ achieve?” the adviser added.