Snapshot
Battlefield situation steady; Russian assault near Kupyansk potentially stalling; no more propaganda TV in occupied Tokmak; Russia sends drones, missiles and airstrikes at Ukraine’s cities and towns; allies continue to step up.
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Analysis
Ukraine still has “significant” reserves it has yet to commit to its counteroffensive against Russian troops, the top US military officer said. Kyiv’s forces are facing heavily fortified Russian positions that include complex minefields, tank obstacles, barbed wire and trenches, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said when asked if the counteroffensive had stalled. “Right now, [the Ukrainians] are preserving their combat power… and it’s a tough fight,” Milley said. He added that it was “way too early” to judge the offensive a failure.
General Developments
Explosions from Russian drones and missiles were recorded and air defense systems activated in Kyiv, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia overnight.
According to the General Staff’s morning report, Russia increased its airstrikes against Ukrainian population settlements and positions to 80, as well as undertook 74 MLRS rocket assaults. Ukraine conducted 12 airstrikes against Russian positions.
According to the General Staff, Russia shelled more than 100 Ukrainian population settlements along the entire frontline – which is a higher level of intensity than has been the case during Ukraine’s summer offensive.
Zaporizhzhia Under Threat? Ukraine Braces for Imminent Russian Assault in Region
Russian forces conducted a strike campaign ostensibly against Ukrainian military objects in southern Ukraine in explicit retaliation for the Kerch Strait Bridge attack, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The practicalities of F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots was one of the main topics of the 14th monthly “Ramstein” Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, Ukrinform reported. “We heard from the co-leads of the F-16 training coalition, Denmark and the Netherlands. They continue to make progress on a cohesive training plan to help some very eager Ukrainian pilots learn to fly fourth-generation aircraft,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said following the meeting.
At the Ramstein meeting, General Milley said that Ukraine’s allies have trained 17 combat brigades and 63,000 Ukrainian troops have been trained by Western allies. The US has trained 15,000 of that total, according to Milley.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has proposed allowing foreign military bases in Ukraine through Constitutional change, according to Ukrainska Pravda. “It’s clear that, if necessary, we can find a legal formula not to call the base a base, but a kind of ‘center’ or something else… It is necessary to remove this [Constitutional] restriction, which has lost its relevance.”
The US is preparing a new aid package for Ukraine worth $1.3 billion, Reuters reported. It will have an emphasis on air defense capabilities, including VAMPIRE air defense systems, other counter-drone systems, radars, sensors, and analysis systems.
Lithuania will lead an international coalition and plan to assist Ukraine’s demining efforts, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced at the Ramstein meeting.
Belgium, The Netherlands, and Luxembourg will send a batch of M113 armored vehicles to Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said at the Ramstein meeting.
Operational Aspects in Bakhmut
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that Ukrainian forces continued to advance on the southern flank of Bakhmut while defending Russian counterattacks on the northern flank.
Operational Aspects in Kupyansk and other areas
Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces continued their increased offensive operations in the Kupyansk area (between the northeastern Kharkiv region and the northwestern Luhansk region), according to ISW.
Malyar said that the intensified Russian assault near Kupyansk “is presently without success.” She added that “battles are on-going, but the initiative is now with our side.” Pro-Russian milbloggers said that Russian troops made progress and “Kupyansk is visible through binoculars.”
Another pro-Russian milblogger said that “in the Luhansk direction, the RF Armed Forces tried to push back the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine across the Oskil River in the Masyutivka area [and] they failed.” Masyutivika is about 10 kilometers north of Kupyansk.
Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia
The television tower in occupied Tokmak in the western Zaporizhzhia region was destroyed by Ukrainian rockets, reported the exiled Mayor of Melitopol and Russian state media.
Malyar said that “in the directions of Mala Tokmachka-Novopokrovka and Veleka Novosilka-Urozhayne, our troops had successes, including reinforcing obtained positions.”
Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia area and in the western Zaporizhzhia Region and reportedly made limited advances, according to ISW.
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