Snapshot
Ukraine continues long-range interdiction of Russian rear; Ukraine’s Seals hit Russian post on the Dnipro; no territorial changes at overall level, but hints in south made by a senior official; no “monopolization of initiative” across theaters, says one analyst, due to parity of weapons and tactics.
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Analysis
Ukrainian milblogger, Reporting from Ukraine, outlines Ukraine’s attrition tactics on the southern front, e.g., the use of infantry to draw enemy artillery, drones to locate them, and HIMARS to destroy them.
General Developments
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that this week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius saw foreign partners pledge more than $1.7 billion in new military aid to Ukraine. The minister listed seven countries that have offered further military aid packages, including Germany, Australia, Norway, the UK, France, the Netherlands and Canada.
Ukrainian air defense forces took down all 20 Shahed drones, fired primarily at the Kyiv region, and two Kalibr missiles yesterday. An Iskander missile was also fired by Russia.
Russia conducted 52 air strikes and 50 MLRS assaults on Ukrainian positions yesterday; Ukraine conducted 8 airstrikes, according to the General Staff.
Russian artillery shelled some 85 Ukrainian population settlements along the front yesterday from Chernihiv to Mykolayiv, according to the General Staff.
Germany's Baerbock Offers Ukraine no Guarantees as Kyiv Sounds Alarm
Operational Aspects in Bakhmut
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that Ukrainian forces continued to press forward their offensive on the southern flank, while Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked on the northern flank.
Fighting continued around Klischiivka and the southern canal, according to Deep State.
Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Kherson, Russia and other areas
Fighting is occurring for Novoselivsk, as well as the Serebryanka forest, according to Ukrainian milblogger Deep State. The town is “factually in the gray zone,” as Russian forces seek to press an advantage at the Luhansk part of the front. Pro-Russian sources said counterattacks took place near Torsk.
Geolocated footage published on July 11 shows that Ukrainian forces recently made limited advances north of Krasnohorivka (9 kilometers north of Avdiivka), according to ISW.
Russian forces fired mortars at the village of Popivka in Sumy Oblast from the territory of Russia. As a result, a 60-year-old resident was killed in his own household, Ukraiinska Pravda reported. Sumy was subjected to particularly heavy shelling yesterday.
“In recent days, the enemy intensified the redeployment of personnel, ammunition, and equipment across the [Kerch] Bridge which is one of the reasons for the traffic jams on it,” the military partisan movement Atesh posted on Telegram.
Russian forces continued to try to dislodge Ukrainian troops from positions around the Antonivka Bridge across the Dnipro River near Kherson, according to Deep State.
Ukrainian special forces appear to be continuing operations among islands on the Dnipro, according to their own claims, such as the below video, and those of pro-Russian milbloggers. One of the latter posted on Telegram: “Devils still swim along the Dnipro in high-speed boats.”
Shahed attacks and explosions were reported last night in Kryviy Rih and Odesa, according to Ukrainian air defense sources.
Explosions were reported in the Russian regions of Belgorod, Voronezh and Kursk, according to multiple sources.
Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia
Malyar mentioned several population settlements on the southern front for the first time. She said that “in the directions of Novodanylivka, Shyroka Balka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novopokrovka, our troops were successful and are now entrenched on the achieved frontiers. The enemy is now moving divisions and using all available reserves. Because our fighters destroy enemy equipment warehouses every day, the number of enemy shelling has decreased somewhat.”
Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces pressed the attack near Pryyutne and Staromaiorske, which are in the regional border area.
Twenty Russian air defense and artillery systems were destroyed – and confirmed by geolocated footage – in the battlefields south of Orikhiv over the past week, according to Ukrainian milblogger, Reporting from Ukraine.
Former Commander of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) Major General Ivan Popov claimed in leaked audio that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems on the western Zaporizhzhia region frontline to senior commanders, according to ISW.
About 200 Russian occupation officials and the Kremlin-appointed leader of Tokmak were killed, an exiled Ukrainian local government official claimed. Ivan Fedorov, the exiled mayor of occupied Melitopol, said that Ukrainian forces “have successfully worked on the occupiers' positions in Tokmak. Intelligence reports that the forging and stamping plant is done [struck – ed.].”
There are currently about 500 Russian military personnel and employees of the Rosatom nuclear company at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, it was claimed. “About 500 Russian soldiers and Rosatom employees are at the plant. We don’t know what kind of weapons they use to mine the plant,” Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Yuriy Malashko told a briefing.
In a report by UkrInform, Malashko stated that Russian occupiers use the plant’s territory to shell populated settlements in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions and to store weapons and ammunition.
Fighting continued around Robotyne south of Orikhiv, according to Deep State, and Zherebyanka southwest of Orikhiv, according to pro-Russian sources.
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