Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for June 21: ‘The Russians Are Going to Adapt’

Snapshot

A “push me/pull you” situation appeared to be the case along some 1,000 kilometers of the front. Ukrainian forces attempted to slowly push forward in western Zaporizhzhia, western Donetsk and around Bakhmut; Russian forces mounted somewhat intensified offensive action in northern Donetsk. Russian air strikes – 83 in one day – were 60% greater than average. Major artillery duels took place in several zones, especially Kherson region. No substantial gains were claimed by Ukrainian or Russian forces.

Analysis

Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told a Washington, D.C. briefing: 

·      “This is a worldwide effort to provide Ukraine what it needs to be successful on the battlefield.”

·      “We believe that we have provided Ukraine the systems, the capabilities that they need right now in the fight.” 

·      “We know this is going to be a tough fight.  Of course, the Russians are going to adapt, as they would have from the beginning of the war of, you know, things that worked, things that didn't, but so have the Ukrainians.”

·      “And we have accounted for losses.  We know there are going to be losses on the battlefield.  That's the unfortunate part of this war but it's something we've seen the Ukrainians overcome since the beginning.” 

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

Ukraine’s Claims

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said:

·      Offensive action continues on several fronts in the south.

·      “Everything is going according to the plan determined by the military. Our forces are making gains on all fronts where they are active. But enemy forces won’t easily relinquish their positions, so fierce fighting and tough battles continue."

·      Russian forces are rigging fields and civilian settlements with explosives.

·      Russian forces are making attempts to advance in some sectors, while Ukrainian forces there are on the defensive.

Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of Zaporizhia and Donetsk regions

·      Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

·      Ukrainian infantry assaulted Rivnopil and Pryutne, according to Russian milblogger, WarGonzo, who also reported intense artillery duels across this zone.

·      Malyar said there had been combat in the vicinity of Levadne-Novodarivka.

·      Russian forces lost more than five companies killed and wounded in a day, and 46 units of military equipment were destroyed or damaged, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of Ukrainian troops in the south wrote on Telegram. According to Tarnavsky, "rocket and artillery troops completed 1,487 fire missions throughout the day."

Zone B: Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks in the western Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

·      Ukrainian forces attacked south of Orikhiv around Russian-occupied Robotne and Russian forces counterattacked Ukrainian-claimed Pyatyhatky, according to Russian milblogger, WarGonzo. He also reported intense artillery duels across lines in this theater, including as far west as the Kakhovka reservoir.

·      The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Orikhiv in the western Zaporizhzhia region.

Zone C: Bakhmut 

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

·      After a counteroffensive assault from Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, northwest of Bakhmut, “the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to occupy several dominant heights and approach a section of the M-03 highway,” Russian milblogger WarGonzo posted.

·      Ukrainian infantry assaults also took place on the northern flank closer to Bakhmut at Berkhivka and Yahidne, according to WarGonzo.

·      Ukrainian infantry assaults also took place near Klishchiivka on the southern flank of Bakhmut. Russian milblogger WarGonzo said that “less than one and a half kilometers separate [Ukrainian forces] from the settlement.”

·      Three combat engagements took place in the Bakhmut zone with Russian forces using artillery of various calibers and rocket systems more than 300 times, as well as launching airstrikes using combat aircraft, according to a Ukrainian military spokesperson.

Zone D: Other Theatres/Activity, including Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka

·      Russian forces undertook 83 air strikes against Ukrainian objectives (compared to their daily average for June of 53),  according to Ukrainian military reports.

·      Russian troops attacked the Lyman–Kreminna zone (northern Donetsk region) more than 20 times over the past day, according to a Ukrainian military spokesman, including at Yampil.

·      Russian forces “continued a slightly intensified pace of ground attacks” near Kreminna, according to ISW.

·      Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, according to ISW.

·      Malyar said Russian forces are seeking to cut the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line at Kamyanka and Kruta Balka, and “possess colossal advantages in artillery and tanks.”

·      Malyar reported a similar situation at Pobyeda closer to Marinka to the southwest of Donetsk City.

·      Intense artillery duels are reportedly taking place in Kherson region, according to Russian milblogger WarGonzo, including in the vicinity of the destroyed Kakhovka dam.

·      Russian forces conducted a missile and drone strike on Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 33 Shahed-131/136 drones, seven S-300 missiles, and one Iskander-M missile targeting Kyiv region and civilian infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down 30 Shahed drones.

·      Fire erupted at a gunpowder factory in the Russian town of Kotovsk, Tambov region, killing four people, Russian state-controlled news outlet RIA Novosti reported.

·      Russian milblogger WarGonzo claimed that there had been aerial assaults/explosions in Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions, and Russian-occupied Crimea.

The daily 06:00 update of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported:

·      83 Russian air strikes;

·      58 Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) strikes;

·      40 defensive firefights around Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka areas;

·      Russian air strikes took place in locations in the following regions: Chernihiv (two), Donetsk (10); Zaporizhzhia (three), Kharkiv (two), and Kherson (three);

·      Russian artillery, rocket and mortar fire took place in locations in the following regions: Chernihiv (four); Kharkiv (20); Sumy (eight); Luhansk (four); Donetsk (32); Zaporizhzhia (11), Kherson (23), Dnipropetrovsk (one), and Mykolayiv (one);

·      The Ukrainian Air Force undertook nine air strikes against Russian positions and equipment.