Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for June 20: ‘The Operation Continues According to Plan’

Snapshot

·      There were ongoing offensive actions by Ukraine in all three of its chosen theaters of operation, as well as mine clearing activity, but no substantive territorial gains reported.

·      Eight villages and an additional 113 square kilometers are now under Ukrainian control.

·      Russia increased its own offensive activity in the northern part of Donetsk region, according to Ukrainian spokespersons.

·      UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) said that Russia has likely deployed large portions of it forces from the east (left) bank of the Kherson Region to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions over the past 10 days.

Ukraine’s Claims

·      “The operation continues according to the plan,” said Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny said about his country’s summer offensive in an unprecedented video released from a frontline working session. Zaluzhny noted that Russian forces had deployed a system of fortifications with dense minefields and a large number of reserves. Vladimir Putin last week said Zaluzhny is not in Ukraine.

·      Russia has increased its offensive attacks in Ukraine’s East and there is intense combat around Lyman and Kreminna, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said. She further said that Russia continues to pursue its plans of occupying all the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Other Topics of Interest

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North Korea has denounced US-led criticism of the deployment of DPRK troops to Ukraine and defended its alliance with Moscow.

Analysis

Retired Australian General and internationally renowned military strategist, Mick Ryan, today wrote for the Australian national broadcaster:

·      The Russians have demonstrated the ability to learn and adapt.

·      Russian President Vladimir Putin has embraced a revised strategy to draw out the length of the conflict and has called his invasion a “long process.”

·      This is based on Western populations and politicians tiring of the war.

·      The strategy has two phases: 1) buying time through increased mobilization, deployment, stabilization of front lines, and fortification, and; 2) making Ukraine defend on multiple fronts, including via increased air attacks, increased propaganda campaign to portray Ukraine’s offensive as failing, and improved close combat performance.

Operational Overview

A.    TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis – boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

·      Russian milbloggers reported continued Ukrainian attacks southward along this axis, which is in the direction of Mariupol.

B.    Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Ukraine and geolocated data confirmed control of the village of Pyatyhatky, which is to the west of Orikhiv and closer to the Dnipro River. This axis is in the direction of Tokmak and Berdyansk.

·      Russian milblogger WarGonzo reported Ukrainian continued Ukrainian attacks, including “massive” artillery bombing, against Robotyne, south of Orikhiv.

C.     Bakhmut

·      A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attacks northwest, northeast, and southwest of Bakhmut on June 19 and claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Krasnopolivka (about 12km north of Bakhmut).

D.    Other Theaters/Activity

·      Ukrainian military spokesman claimed an advance of one kilometer outside Avdiika near Donetsk City, but this is not confirmed.

·      According to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar, Russian forces have intensified their attacks and efforts near Lyman and Kreminna in northern Donetsk region, especially around the Torske sub-region. She indicated that more units of Russian paratroopers have been deployed there, but that Ukrainian forces were holding their positions.

·      Overnight, there were explosions from Russian missile and drone attacks against Zaporizhzhia, using at least seven S-300 rockets, and Lviv regions. Russian forces also conducted strikes targeting southern Ukraine on June 19. Ukrainian air defenses reported destroying 32 of 34 Shahed drones and four Kalibr missiles.

·      There were 45 Russian air raids reported by Ukrainian forces; Ukraine stated that it conducted 10 air raids.

·      One Ukrainian civilian was killed by Russian artillery in the Sumy region.

·      Russian milblogger WarGonzo said there were Ukrainian drone attacks on three Russian regions and the occupied Crimea region.