ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 29, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to Wagner mercenaries.
• Prigozhin also continued his efforts to convince the Kremlin to go over to the defensive in eastern Ukraine.
• Prigozhin offered the position of First Deputy Commander of Wagner forces, possibly sarcastically, to former Russian Deputy Defense Minister for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev who was reportedly dismissed from his position on April 27.
• Ukrainian forces attacked an oil storage facility in Sevastopol reportedly with a wave of Mugin-5 UAVs on April 29.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces made limited gains in Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted a sea-based missile strike against the command post of the Ukrainian Kherson Group of Forces. Ukrainian officials have so far not confirmed this claim.
• The Russian MoD continues to pursue measures to expedite the conscription process and increase the difficulty of evading summonses.
• Russian occupation authorities and border area officials have expanded security measures and filtration efforts likely in anticipation of increased Ukrainian partisan activity in support of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Authors: Angela Howard, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan.

See full report here.