ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in 25 days.
• Commander of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet Admiral Viktor Liina reportedly assumed command of the Russian Pacific Fleet following the completion of Russian drills in the Pacific.
• A Russian fighter-bomber accidentally bombed Belgorod on April 20.
• The Angry Patriots Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of supporting efforts to freeze the war in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law aimed at supporting the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to set conditions for domestic crackdowns and the removal of officials who have fallen out of favor.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to advance in and around Bakhmut, although Russian forces have not completed a turning movement around the city.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front and conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects are forming new cross-regional volunteer formations to support the ongoing force generation campaigns.
• Russian authorities are expanding the logistics capabilities and security measures on the Arabat Spit likely to prepare for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Authors: Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See full report here.