Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Wednesday, April 12

Good morning from Kyiv where weather conditions are what meteorologists technically call “miserable”. It’s cold, wet and grey.

 What’s happening today?

 It seems this week that the world is waking up to further apparent “leaks” of military and intel files every morning.

 The latest is that around 100 special forces soldiers from NATO countries, including 50 British troops, are allegedly operating inside Ukraine. The British Ministry of Defense tweeted overnight that “the widely reported leak of U.S. information has demonstrated a serious level of inaccuracy.”

 Kyiv Post is watching these developments with caution as the whole situation is under investigation.

 While the detail of the documents is rich, the provenance and authenticity of at least some of the purported files – which initially appeared through a gaming site – is disputed by U.S., U.K. and Ukrainian authorities.

 Furthermore, the timing of the emergence of these supposed documents could be designed to suit a disinformation campaign. Indeed, a key feature of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been its strategic propaganda.

 Therefore, our approach will be to cover these developments with care, context and a responsibility to the truth, as per the Explained article we published two days ago.

Other Topics of Interest

Ukraine Must Join the Joint Expeditionary Force, and the UK Should Lead the Way

The UK has been a leader in helping Ukraine. But as inertia sets in and with Western support wavering, efforts must be redoubled. The JEF is a natural bridge to NATO.

 What was in President Zelensky’s latest message?

 President Volodymyr Zelensky provided insights from his meeting yesterday with his top commanders and, afterwards, was particularly focused on “internal resilience.”

 “It is unwise to just passively hope that someone else will bring victory…This is a common task,” Zelensky said.

 Zelensky also noted that Howard Buffet, a wealthy U.S. philanthropist, met with him yesterday and that the pair discussed projects in Ukraine. Buffet announced additional donations to buy nine 50-passenger buses for the Ukrainian military

 What’s the latest military situation?

 On the battlefields of Ukraine, the General Staff of Ukraine reported that in the 24 hour period to 6 a.m. this morning, there were 72 land-based attacks by Russian forces, as well as one missile attack, 21 air strikes, and 33 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) attacks on Ukrainian settlements and on military positions.

 The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) latest daily intelligence update on Ukraine noted the following:

·       Over recent weeks, Russia has continued to develop extensive linear defenses in Zaporizhzhia [region] in southern Ukraine. The area is highly likely the responsibility of Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces (SGF).

·       Russia has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120km of this sector. These consist of a front line of forward combat positions, then two zones of nearly continuous, more elaborate defenses. Each zone is approximately 10-20km behind the one in front.

·       Russia has probably put significant effort into these defensive works because it is convinced Ukraine is considering an assault towards the city of Melitopol.

·       The defenses have the potential to be formidable obstacles, but their utility almost entirely depends on them being supported by sufficient artillery and personnel. It remains unclear if the SGF can currently muster these resources.

 The Institute for the Study of War’s daily assessment for April 11 noted that:

·       The Kremlin passed legislation to use tools of digital authoritarianism to digitize and improve the effectiveness of issuing summonses and to crack down on Russian draft dodgers.

·       Both the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin acknowledged each other's roles in the Bakhmut effort.

·       A small, fringe group of pro-war Russian milbloggers called for the Russian government to repeal the censorship laws against discrediting the Russian military.

·       Russian forces appear to hold positions northeast of Kupyansk and have made gains in the forest area south of Kreminna.

·       Russian forces conducted ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and conducted defensive operations in southern Ukraine.

·       Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited defense industrial enterprises in Tula Oblast as part of the ongoing effort to portray the resilience of Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).

·       Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova continues to confirm that Russian authorities are taking a number of actions vis-a-vis Ukrainian children in an attempt to exculpate herself from the International Criminal Court's (ICC) warrant for her arrest.