ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian milbloggers responded with speculative anxiety to reportedly leaked (and possibly altered) classified US military documents about the war in Ukraine, indicating continued fear over the prospect of future Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Russian information space.
• The Kremlin continues to indicate that it is not interested in legitimate negotiations while placing the onus for negotiations on the West.
• A Ukrainian official reported that Russian aviation units are changing tactics, possibly as a result of aviation losses and depleted stocks of high-precision weapons.
• High-ranking Russian officials reportedly can only leave Russia with permission from Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
• Former Russian officer and prominent critical milblogger Igor Girkin revealed on April 7 that a volunteer battalion that he previously promoted is essentially a sham.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued advancing in and around Bakhmut and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
• Russian forces continue to build defenses in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.
• Russian officials continue measures to support Russia’s ongoing spring conscription cycle amid continued crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Russian occupation officials are accelerating passportization efforts in occupied Ukraine. 

Authors: Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Mason Clark

See full report here.