Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Tuesday, March 28

Good morning from Kyiv. Russia launched a number of overnight attacks against Ukrainian cities, including a drone attack on the capital and surrounding region.

 Air raid sirens sounded just after 10 p.m., an all too depressingly familiar occurrence that Kyiv’s residents now face with a familiar sense of resignation.

·      12 kamikaze drones were shot down in the Kyiv region but debris from one set fire to a shop.

·      Another drone attack sparked a large fire in the eastern city of Dnipro.

What’s happening today?

 In more positive news, Ukraine has some rather impressive new toys to play with. Last night it was announced that German and British heavy tanks had finally arrived in Ukraine.

 The tanks – long an item on Ukraine's military equipment wish list – were promised to Kyiv earlier this year and will provide a key infusion of armored firepower that will aid the battle against invading Russian troops.

 You can read more about that story here.

What was in President Zelensky’s latest message?

 During his daily address on Monday evening, President Zelensky accused Russian troops of holding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant “hostage” and said its safety could not be guaranteed until the Russians left.

 “Holding a nuclear power station hostage for more than a year – this is surely the worst thing that has ever happened in the history of European or worldwide nuclear power,” he said, calling the Russian presence there “radiation blackmail.”

Other Topics of Interest

What if Russia Wins?

For fear of nuclear escalation, we have accelerated nuclear proliferation.

What’s the latest military situation?

 The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) update on March 28 focuses on the continuing Russian attempt to encircle the Donetsk Oblast town of Avdiivka.

 According to the MoD, it is not going well for the invaders, with Russia having made “only marginal progress at the cost of heavy losses in armoured vehicles.”

 It adds: “Russia’s 10th Tank Regiment has likely lost a large proportion of its tanks while attempting to surround Avdiivka from the south. The regiment is part of 3rd Army Corps, the first major new formation Russia stood up to support the invasion of Ukraine since August 2022.

 “Numerous open-source accounts suggested that 3rd Army Corps has been particularly dogged by problems with ill-discipline and poor morale. Despite a likely period of training in Belarus, the formation still appears to display limited combat effectiveness.

 “10th Tank Regiment’s losses have likely largely been due to tactically flawed frontal assaults similar to those in other recent failed Russian armoured attacks, such as around the town of Vuhledar.”

 The Institute for the Study of War’s March 27 daily assessment covers a multitude of topics, most notably:

·      Rumors about the dismissal of Russian Eastern Group of Forces (Eastern Military District) Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov on March 27 generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space.

·      Russian milbloggers also had a muted response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 25 announcement that Russia will deploy tactical nukes to Belarus, suggesting that Putin’s messaging is aimed at Western rather than domestic Russian audiences.

·      Russian military leadership likely committed limited higher quality Wagner Group elements to the offensive on Avdiivka, potentially to reinforce recent limited tactical successes in the area.

 And that’s it for today’s Morning Memo.

Kyiv Post will bring you the latest news throughout the day and we’ll be back with another edition tomorrow.