ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 17, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22 likely to discuss sanctions evasion schemes and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is supplying Russia electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW assessments that Belarus may assist Russia to evade Western sanctions.
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s rhetoric about Belgrade’s refusal to sanction Russia is softening.
• The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova on March 17 for alleged war crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
• Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported that it did not submit a press request to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin concerning a rumored plot by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev against him.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks across the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the outskirts of Donetsk City.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces along the front line in southern Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to call up reservists throughout Russia.
• Russian authorities reportedly detained three Ukrainian partisans in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Authors: Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan

See full report here.