ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27

Here are the key takeaways:

·       Kremlin insiders reportedly told Bloomberg that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive to regain the initiative that may begin as early as February or March 2023.

·       The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is issuing preemptive pardons for convicts who serve in Russian operations in Ukraine. 

·       A visual investigation by a Russian opposition outlet confirmed that Russian authorities are deporting children from occupied Kherson Oblast to occupied Crimea.

·       Russian officials denied reported explosions near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on January 26.

·       The Russian military command is likely attempting to restrict mibloggers’ frontline coverage to regain control over the Russian information space ahead of the new offensive. These restrictions—if planned—are likely a part of the Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s efforts to professionalize the Russian Armed Forces.

·       Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Kreminna on Jan. 26 and Jan.27.

·       Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, on the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Other Topics of Interest

Moldova Investigates Russian Missile, Romania Says No Airspace Violation

Kyiv says on Christmas morning, a Russian missile targeting Ukraine’s energy grid flew through Moldovan and Romanian airspace; Bucharest says none was detected while Chișinău says it is investigating.

·       Russian sources did not report that Russian forces continued localized offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast on Jan. 27.

·       Russian officials claimed that the conscription age will not change in the upcoming 2023 spring conscription cycle.

·       Russian occupation authorities are continuing to intensify efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian legal and administrative structures.

Authors: Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Layne Philipson, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See the full report here.