OPINION: Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? What the Experts Say at the End of 2024.

Vadym Prystaiko

Vadym Volodymyrovych Prystaiko is a former minister of foreign affairs and former deputy foreign minister who acted as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2023.

As 2024 draws to a close, it does so amid the daily cacophony of air-raid sirens, grim updates from the frontlines, and the monotonously wearisome refrain from the West: concessions must be made, Russia is too strong, NATO is divided but supposedly perfect as it is – without Kyiv.

Yet, in the true spirit of Christmas, many Ukrainians seem to have discovered a renewed sense of optimism and enthusiasm. They anticipate that 2025 will usher in a new normal or perhaps even the long-awaited peace.

But what underpins this hope? Is it the deeply rooted belief, akin to that of a buckwheat-seeder, that someone, somewhere, will come to magically resolve all our troubles? Santa? Donald? Maybe both? Perhaps it is an act of autosuggestion, rivaling even the infamous “two-three weeks.”

Or could it be a sign that rational thinking is at a critical low - a nation not only tired and exhausted but also adrift, lacking a clear vision of its future?

At what point did we start indulging in the idea of 2024 as the decisive year? Did we not understand from the outset that we were battling a much larger adversary – one with a blatant disregard for human lives? How could we have allowed ourselves, even for a moment, to hope for negotiating a “fair peace” with a bear that holds our very head in its jaws?

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Should we not adapt, in full, Sir Winston Churchill’s vivid metaphor about appeasing a predator? And beyond adopting his clever wording, should we not also embrace his resolve and continue the fight despite the grim realities of war, our own weaknesses, and the faltering commitment of some allies?

It took Churchill three years to convince the US to come to the rescue in World War II. We, too, have fought for that long, proving to our partners that the immense political and financial investments they’ve made in Ukraine are worth it. These efforts must not be squandered in a panicked attempt to secure a fragile and deceptive “peace.”

Yes, the task ahead will be difficult. But it will not be as grueling as halting the relentless Russian war machine. We can overcome this. We must reinvent ourselves and reinvigorate our alliances. We have all of 2025 to do so. And if not, then 2026.

Peter Dickinson

Peter Dickinson is UkraineAlert Editor, Atlantic Council

2024 was a year of painful military realities for Ukraine that has led to a lowering of expectations. With Russia slowly but steadily advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine’s own manpower shortages growing increasingly apparent, earlier Ukrainian optimism about the liberation of the entire country has gradually been replaced by the more realistic goal of holding onto as much territory as possible.

Having said that, it is also important to maintain a sense of perspective when assessing Russia’s military successes. Putin’s army has suffered appalling casualties and has advanced at little more than a crawl. Indeed, at the current pace, it would take Russia decades to complete the conquest of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s bold offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria have highlighted the limitations of Russia’s overextended war machine.

Naturally, all attention is now focused on the prospect of peace talks once Donald Trump returns to the White House in January. I believe Trump is broadly sincere in his commitment to ending the war as quickly as possible but anticipate that he will find Russia very uncooperative.

Based on Trump’s appointments, his public statements, and those of his colleagues, it seems likely that he will push for a deal that grants Russia most of its immediate territorial goals, while thwarting Putin’s historic mission to subjugate Ukraine or place the Ukrainian state at his mercy.

This is unlikely to prove persuasive. On the contrary, with the Russian army already holding the battlefield initiative and almost certain of eventual victory in a long war of attrition, Putin will feel that time is on his side and will be in no mood to compromise.

The key sticking point in any negotiations is likely to be the issue of security guarantees for Ukraine. While NATO membership looks to be off the table, Ukraine is pushing for binding bilateral commitments from key Western nations led by the US. Unless credible guarantees can be secured, many in Kyiv may feel they are better off fighting on now, rather than allowing Putin to rearm and resume his invasion against an isolated and exhausted Ukraine in the next few years.   

I am therefore somewhat skeptical that we will see any breakthroughs toward peace in the first months of 2025. Instead, it will take time for Trump to improve Ukraine’s position militarily and convince the Kremlin that he is serious when he speaks of “peace through strength.” In addition to supplying Ukraine with more weapons, this could involve measures in the energy sector to undermine the Russian economy, such as increasing American LNG exports and forcing oil prices down.

During the first months of 2025, the Ukrainian military will remain largely on the defensive and will focus on inflicting maximum Russian losses. The most significant military development is likely to be an increase in Ukrainian airstrikes inside Russia. Ukraine’s domestic drone and missile industries have expanded rapidly since 2022 and are now poised to play a far bigger role in the coming year.

 This will further complicate the logistics of Russia’s invasion and will place additional strains on the country’s energy industry. With the Russian economy already showing signs of severe strain, escalating Ukrainian attacks inside Russia could help fuel instability on Putin’s home front and create a more favorable environment for serious negotiations.

Lord Ashcroft 

Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster.

As the world emerges from a year marked by significant elections, several reassuring truths have come to light. First and foremost, democracy endures. Despite ongoing geopolitical fragmentation and the rise of alliances challenging the Western liberal order, over two billion people worldwide went to the polls, exercising their political will. The newly elected governments and leaders now face the critical task of shaping trajectories for their nations amid challenges such as ongoing wars, social unrest, the proliferation of hybrid warfare tactics, and the growing influence of artificial intelligence in our daily lives. One can only hope they make the right choices for future generations.

Ukraine, despite enduring its most challenging year of the war to date, has demonstrated remarkable resilience. In the face of funding shortfalls, delays in the delivery of vital ammunition, and the relentless toll of a brutal war of attrition, Ukraine’s heroes continue to stand firm. Meanwhile, its leadership persists in navigating the complexities of the international stage. As the world looks to the incoming Trump administration, there is hope that the new Republican leadership will embody the strength of a resolute America – ready to confront adversaries challenging the liberal world order and steadfast in supporting invaluable allies who are making immense sacrifices in defense of shared values.