US President-elect Trump has promised a swift end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, addressing the arguably mishandled war will prove a daunting task. The current United States’ strategy of giving Ukraine “just enough” to stay in the game but not enough to win the war has also put the US in a weak position.
For nearly three years, the US has tip-toed around defining the end-goal in Ukraine. Biden pledged to help Ukraine “as long as it takes,” without specifying if this means until Ukraine’s complete territorial restoration, until negotiations, or until the clock runs out on his presidency. This strategy has backfired.
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In September, Putin said that NATO will be “in the war” if the US allows Ukraine to launch Western-provided long-range missiles at Russia, changing “the very nature of the conflict.”
In response to statements such as these, the US has capped and modified its Ukraine aid to technically fulfill a duty to Ukraine, largely out of fear of emboldening Russia. In the process, we have done just that.
Ukraine has found itself stuck in a circular predicament. In order to justify continued Ukraine aid to the American taxpayer, the Biden administration needed to show significant Ukrainian battlefield success. However, Ukraine cannot achieve battlefield success without continued, heavy US military aid funded by the American taxpayer.
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If the United States’ goal was not to facilitate Ukraine’s total victory and a resulting total Russian defeat, then a Ukrainian loss was inevitable. This means that the United States will lose too, with little to no return on its hefty investment. Moreover, the US funding a war it has no intention of winning will pose far more risks than the obvious financial loss.
Since Russia sees itself in a proxy war against the West, every day that Russia has not “lost” the war, it has won a small victory.
Although the US has provided billions to Ukraine, much of this aid had more symbolic impact in Western headlines than decisive impact on the battlefield. The West sent Ukraine battle tanks ahead of the Summer 2023 counteroffensive, but also provided Ukraine less than 15% of the requested Mine Clearing Line Charge systems necessary to effectively use those tanks.
Additionally, the US limited the range of the HIMARS it sent to Ukraine to avoid escalation with Russia.
On Oct. 30, Zelensky claimed that Ukraine had received only 10% of the military aid Congress approved in April.
A prolonged war in Ukraine, exacerbated by aid delays, has already increased the Kremlin’s perception that it can contend militarily with the West to achieve its goals. Territorial concessions and “peace negotiations” threaten to solidify this perception.
Since Russia sees itself in a proxy war against the West, every day that Russia has not “lost” the war, it has won a small victory. Additionally, prolonged war provides the Russian military ample opportunities to learn on the battlefield against US weaponry and US-trained soldiers. From US press conferences and aid shipment delays, Russia and other adversaries also learn the status of US weapons stockpiles and warfighting readiness.
While a long war in Ukraine is a threat to US national interests, so is ending it abruptly at the negotiation table. Putin cannot afford a humiliating loss, and the US cannot afford to hand Putin even small victories. A desperate Kremlin incessantly reframes battlefield blunders and forced retreats as strategic withdrawals and intentional pivots.
Facilitating large territorial concessions will hand the Kremlin a win in its war against the West and will not end Russian aggression. Instead, it will reward Putin, gift him the opportunity to boast defeat of the West by the Russian people, and encourage him to continue a longstanding pattern of violating international law as seen in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Afghanistan.
Viewing Ukraine aid as a generous humanitarian gift, from both sides of the political aisle, was a mistake. A prolonged war in Ukraine threatens to teach Russia and other adversaries how we fight wars, where our weaknesses lie, and that we don’t always mean what we say. America at its greatest will have to strike a careful balance between viewing the war through a pragmatic lens that doesn’t betray US interests, while also not rewarding aggressor states that operate to undermine everything our nation stands for.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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