In recent days, Ukrainians have been caught up in heated debate about nuclear physics and its laws. On social media, the possibility of creating an atomic bomb in makeshift conditions and whether nuclear waste from power plants can be used is being openly discussed.
A reminder: the 1994 “Budapest Memorandum,” under which Ukraine transferred all nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for “assurances” of the inviolability of its borders and the protection of its sovereignty “guaranteed by the US, UK, and Russia.
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In the intervening 30 years, Ukraine has officially been considered a non-nuclear state. Recently, however, we were reminded that Ukraine only transferred its last 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of highly enriched uranium to Russia in 2010, during the pro-Russian presidency of Viktor Yanukovych and as demanded by President Barack Obama.
This enriched uranium – enough to make two medium-sized nuclear bombs – was flown to Moscow in five planes spread between 21 containers. Obama praised Yanukovych for doing this amid fears that Ukraine might be tempted to secretly pass this uranium to Iran, North Korea or some other renegade state.
Professional nuclear physicists have already explained why it is impossible for Ukraine to create a nuclear weapon today. Apart from the technical obstacles, there are the political consequences of being caught trying to do it.
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The well-known engineer, blogger, writer and activist from Dnipro, Yan Valetov, shocked his followers by stating that any attempt to create even the smallest atomic bomb would immediately lead to sanctions from the West, the cessation of military and other aid and perhaps even, a missile strike from our current partners.
I assume that in saying this, Valetov was trying to bring our pro-nuclear weapons activists to their senses.
However, the topic of nuclear weapons was raised not by bloggers and activists, but by President Zelensky himself in response to criticism of his “Victory Plan” by some European allies.
At an Oct. 17 press conference in Brussels, Zelensky made reference to a conversation with US presidential candidate Donald Trump, in which he said “Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, or Ukraine must become a member of NATO.”
These words flew around the world and returned to Ukraine at a greatly increased volume, thanks to commentators, journalists, and foreign politicians.
Now that we know about the non-secret part of Zelensky's plan we can safely say that it was written more for the Western political establishment and NATO leadership than for Ukrainians. The first point in the “Victory Plan” was for immediate accession to NATO, although Ukraine has not yet even been offered a chance to step onto the bottom rung of the preparations-for-accession ladder, let alone accession itself.
The first point in any plan is key and if it is unattainable then the other points lose all meaning. The Hungarian and Slovak Prime Ministers criticized Zelensky's plan while leaders of some other partner countries gently pointed out the poor chances of it’s being implemented. After Zelensky's Oct. 17 statement, the plan acquired a different, more emotional tone while Putin immediately declared that Russia would under no circumstances allow Ukraine to become a “nuclear power.”
Zelensky's statement gave a slight boost to his popularity, but the loud and optimistic discussions on Ukrainian social networks about the creation of nuclear weapons somewhat darkened the mood of those who know more about nuclear physics.
Public opinion and the public mood are very fragile, especially when faced with critical situations. Now is the time for more realistic plans or at least seeking instructions for positive, achievable steps. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, tried his hand at this approach by announcing the need to reform the training of newly recruited fighters – extending it to a minimum of six weeks in duration.
This decision could play a positive role, but only if we see a change in the mobilization system. “Forced mobilization” tends to bring negative results as was confirmed recently in comments by one battalion commander who said: “Of 25 conscripts mobilized off the street by force only one actually fights, the rest either desert or die in the first few days of their participation in battles.”
Russia responded to Ukrainian dreams of nuclear weapons with a message that around 12,000 North Korean soldiers were about to join Moscow’s fight against the Ukrainian armed forces - among them 1,500 from North Korea’s elite special forces. Russian social networks exploded with admiration for North Korea and expressions of faith in the ability of this ally to do what the Russian army had failed to do – defeat Ukraine.
A couple of days after this announcement the number of North-Korean soldiers coming to Russia shrunk to 3,000 but, since neither North Korea nor Russia will reveal the exact number of “imported” military staff, it could be many more.
North Korean troops are already said to be assembling in the Kursk region, creating a unique situation in which two nuclear powers are allied against one non-nuclear state. At the same time, it has the appearance of a Ukrainian-North Korean war on Russian territory. No author of dystopian fiction could have come up with such a scenario.
South Korea is carefully watching developments. Its leadership cares about what the North Korean army is doing because let's not forget the war between South Korea and the DPRK was never formally ended, it has been on pause for more than 70 years. Ukraine now anticipates that military aid and assistance from South Korea to increase significantly.
Zelensky has just announced that a new plan will soon be presented – not a “Victory Plan-2” but one where action that will be based on Ukraine’s own resources. That gives a hope that the plan will be more realistic.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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