OPINION: Ukraine Didn’t Poke the Bear Soon Enough

Russian military leader Grigory Potemkin, lover of Tsarina Catherine II, decorated villages along the Dnipro River that gave the illusion of prosperity and happiness to divert the tsarina’s attention from the true misery and abject poverty of her subjects. The goal was to project success (a lie), not failure (the truth), as his beloved traveled through her lands.

In these decoratively and temporarily prosperous villages lived real Ukrainians in lands occupied by Russia. They understood that the quickly freshened houses and groomed horses and baskets filled with flowers and fruit were only for display, to make the tsarina’s trip pleasant, to disguise the true levels of poverty.

It has been that way for centuries. The Russian elite fools itself, to fool the West. They used baubles - operas, ballets, painters and plays, poets and composers, languid intellectuals, enchanting, enticing decorations to create an illusion of deep wisdom and wealth and by extension and presumption, Moscow’s superiority and strength.

In 1991, the Russians were stunned to learn that Ukrainians had been faking it for 300 years – that inside that cheerful, supposedly stupid khohol was a race of shrewd and canny survivors who did not see themselves as a Little Russian, and given the option, actually preferred independence. The Ukrainians pulled a Potemkin on the Russians, using their own tricks against them.

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Ukraine Beyond Trump

While some observers are writing off Ukraine as a lost cause after Trump takes office, those who know Ukrainians understand that it would be foolish to underestimate them.

Yet, here we are, in 2024, same old, same old.

Russia wants the West to believe, as they themselves still believe, a modern version of the original Potemkin story - that Russia is a big, bad bear that will rip you to bloody shreds if you stand in its way, will lob nuclear missiles in your direction with its paws. While the numbers, indeed, are in Russia’s favor, enough to give one pause, once again Ukrainian shrewdness, born from the will to survive, is underestimated, even ignored.

While caution is often a prudent strategy, the need for caution comes only when there is a genuine threat. Is the big, bad bear really a threat or only a façade, like Potemkin’s supposedly prosperous village? The Ukrainians, ignoring the West’s overabundant sense of caution, that almost borders on cowardice, have decided to poke the bear to see if he really will roar.

Of course, the tactic is risky, but the lives of Ukrainians and the future of Ukraine is even more at risk unless the truth is revealed. Either Ukraine pokes the bear, and the bear bleats a confused whimper and lumbers away as Ukraine (and the West – you’re welcome) wins; or, Ukraine pokes the bear, the bear roars back, and strikes and Ukraine loses quickly, a fate far more preferable than the painful slow death that Ukraine currently faces.  

For those who support the slow path to death, Ukraine is being reckless. For those who understand, as the Ukrainian proverb goes, “The strong get to choose what to do, while the weak do as they must,” Ukraine is courageous.

Time for the US to cast aside that so-called strategy of caution and help Ukraine really poke the bear – perhaps better late than never.

 The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.

Ms. Jarosewich, a retired editor and journalist, during her career focused on matters related to Ukraine.