Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk and Belgorod, the first foreign invasion of Russia since World War II, has put the Kremlin’s mouthpieces into a tizzy as they simultaneously argue that the “provocation” is intended to “sow internal chaos,” but that, fear not, “order will be restored.”
Some speculate that if Russia is not able to quickly get its act together, it may turn to its old playbook of dirty tricks, hoping that a false flag operation could remedy the embarrassing problem of having gone from being “the occupiers of Ukraine,” to being “occupied by Ukraine.”
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While some Russian news sources admit that the situation is “complicated” or “difficult,” most still assure Russia’s victory. The Kremlin’s talking heads deny Ukrainian agency in plotting the attack: one newspaper, owned by the Moscow Mayor, wrote that Ukraine’s invasion was “senseless, as the Ukrainians themselves do not understand their goals.” This is consistent with the views of broadcaster Olga Skabayeva, who argued that the invasion was “fully approved and coordinated” by the White House. Too hard would it be to admit that perhaps Ukraine, unleashed from White House restrictions on attacking inside of Russia, is now turning the tables on Russia.
As Ukraine now pushes deeper into Russia, and the Russian Army scrambles to beat back the invasion, it is reported that Putin has appointed his friend, Federal Security Services’ (FSB) Chief, Alexander Bortnikov, to plan the responding “anti-terrorism operation” in conjunction with Secretary of the State Council, Alexei Dyumin , another former FSB man (who also worked as one of Putin’s personal bodyguard). The military and the security services have had a historically tense relationship – it is not surprising that Putin, himself the former Director of Russia’s FSB, dismayed by the military’s incompetence in repelling Ukraine, would turn to members of his own tribe to handle what the Armed Forces could not.
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On Friday, Ukrainian government officials indicated that Moscow’s rhetoric about “dirty bombs” earlier that same day was indicative of the fact that perhaps Moscow was planning either a false flag operation at a nuclear power plant or some sort of other nuclear-related operation.
However, some have voiced concern that the FSB, which is not a military organization, will lack the capacity to repel the Ukrainian troops, leading the FSB to fall back on their organization’s historic role: whenever Moscow required a distraction from government failures, or to quickly gin-up public support against a common foe, the organization would produce domestic terrorism and blame it on foreign hands.
“The FSB and its predecessors have extensive experience in false flag operations,” says Ihor Solovey, who heads up Ukraine’s STRATCOM efforts to combat Russian Propaganda. Solovey ticked off a number of examples: from Russian soldiers dressing as Ukrainian patriots when massacring civilians during the Second World War; to the present war, where Russia has blamed Ukraine for killing people in the Donbas, which Russia has shelled.
Using false flag operations is “standard” for Russia, says Malcolm Nance, bestselling author and veteran of Ukraine’s Foreign Legion, who says he would not be surprised if Russia were to “carry out mass murders of its own citizens, in Kursk province, in order to claim the Ukrainian Army is committing war crimes.”
Nance points to the example of Putin’s alleged role of blowing up Moscow apartment buildings in 1999, which killed over 300 peaceful Russian civilians, with the goal of stoking "the Russian – Chechen war… which propelled Vladimir Putin into the presidency.”
David Satter, an author and historian, who is an expert on Putin’s role in the 1999 apartment bombings, confirms that “we know the Putin regime has no concern for the lives of its citizens… false flag attacks in which they kill their own people in order to accuse Ukraine are always a possibility.”
Of course, there is no guarantee that Russia will do the unthinkable, as it “may not see any advantage in a provocation,” says Satter. However, the possibility does still exist and so “anything that happens in the Kursk theatre has to be seen with that in mind,” the author emphasizes.
While these types of false flag operations seem incredibly drastic, Putin’s potential response to Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory may be just that. Historical precedent indicates that Russia, particularly the FSB, could very well resort to killing its own citizens if it would help tip the situation in Moscow’s favor.
Putin is watching as every day in Russia, hundreds more of his soldiers surrender, brewing a crisis that undermines the bedrock of his image of being Mr. Security. At what point will Putin say “enough,” and turn to the dark tactics learned during decades in the KGB?
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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