OPINION: Putin’s Hungarian

On July 1, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán assumed the rotating Presidency of the European Union (EU) for six months despite his friendship with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to obstruct Europe’s military aid to Ukraine, and his sanctions-breaking energy dependence on Russian oil and natural gas.

He is a spoiler and an outlier when it comes to foreign policy, within the 27-member EU, and has also been fined for corruption and abrogating its rules concerning judicial independence and human rights. And Hungary also lives off Euro subsidies.

But no sooner did he assume the role, than he trekked to Kyiv and recommended an immediate ceasefire to President Volodymyr Zelensky, not to Russia the predator. His request was neither EU policy nor rational.

In 2014, after Russia’s first invasion, a ceasefire and negotiation began but the Russians never left, then re-invaded in 2022 to get the rest. Orbán also improperly suggested that Ukraine surrender a region called Kakarpattia that has traded hands for decades and where only 12 percent of residents speak Hungarian. Clearly, Orbán should not “lead” Europe.

“Hungary's right-wing nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán is the first head of the rotating EU Council presidency to have publicly attacked and demeaned the EU's own institutions,” wrote Germany’s Deutsche Welle. “How much damage could Orbán really do?”

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How much damage could he do? In a word, plenty.

Giving a Putin pal a high-profile position at a critical time in the war is dangerous and also will provide Orbán with the leverage to spread his pro-Russia, zenophobic, homophobic, and anti-semitic beliefs.

For example, he boasted he will “occupy Brussels” and organize a right-wing bloc within the European Parliament among those parties that made gains in recent Euro elections.

He is also the darling of America’s pro-Russia right, invited to Republican and MAGA conferences and feted by Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson. This conduit to American cash and influence is compliments of John Sullivan, an editor (I worked alongside in Canada) and super networker.

He worked for Margaret Thatcher, then in Washington DC, and now runs a Hungarian-based think tank that sponsors high-level rightwing hook-ups. Ergo, Orbán has just copied MAGA’s motto, with his “Make Europe Great Again” slogan.

Orbán’s rise to power perplexes for a number of reasons. Hungary should be fiercely anti-Russian. It was the first Soviet satellite to stage an uprising against Moscow in 1956 which was brutally suppressed.

But today, Budapest is a Russian “satellite” and vassal. As of 2024, Budapest relied on Russia for 75 percent of its natural gas, 80 percent of its oil, and 100 percent of its nuclear fuel. This economic dependency is why Orbán rejected Euro sanctions against Russian energy in 2014 and in 2022, despite European Union pressure. It’s also why his phone calls are returned by the Kremlin.

Orbán also claims that Ukraine has discriminated against the language rights of 156,000 ethnic Hungarians who live in Kakarpattia. He believes this territory “belongs” to Hungary, and this has become his pretext for not supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russia.

In his recent meeting with Zelensky, he handed over a list of 11 demands which included that he hand over this territory to Hungary. It was a straight-up extortion without justification and unacceptable conduct for a European official.

Orbán should resign from the position, or be forced out, because his efforts are at odds with EU members.

He has blocked more than €6.6bn in military aid for Ukraine via the European Peace Facility fund. He temporarily stalled Ukraine’s EU accession talks but agreed to leave the room during a meeting with EU counterparts in order to allow them to vote unanimously in favor of launching the process.

Further, he has weakened EU sanctions against Russia and run afoul of Brussel’s regulations for years. “To date, the EU has frozen €30 billion ($32.1 billion) in funding for Hungary due to a very real threat of corruption in Budapest, as well as the fact that Brussels says courts in Hungary are no longer independent,” added Die Welt.

Another problem is that Orbán’s family and associates have become staggeringly wealthy. Hungary is now an oligarchy, with a distinct whiff of corruption, as Orbán’s inner circle finance their empires with funds from the EU as well as from Russia and China.

In October, he met with Putin in Beijing to celebrate the 10th anniversary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Budapest is now involved with China in a railway project and in May Hungary’s biggest and government-linked football club, Ferencvárosi, announced massive funding from its new sponsor, Russia’s oil giant Gazprom. (The football club’s President is also deputy chair of Orbán’s ruling Fidesz political party.)

And over the years, Hungary’s oligarchy has cashed in on many other EU-funded infrastructure contracts, according to The Guardian.

Orbán routinely plays one side or alliance off against another for advantage — a Hungarian tradition that has allowed the country to retain its cultural uniqueness even though it is surrounded by nations that don’t speak its language or have allegiance. Hungary is landlocked, has only 10 million people, and is bordered by seven countries.

Orban assumed the Presidency even though he has excoriated Europe’s bureaucrats as war-mongers: “Europe is increasingly being dragged into a war, in which it has nothing to gain and everything to lose. The Brussels bureaucrats want this war, they see it as their own, and they want to defeat Russia. They keep sending the money of the European people to Ukraine, they have shot European companies in the foot with sanctions, they have driven up inflation, and they have made making a living difficult for millions of European citizens.”

While scolding Europe about the war, Orbán enables Putin’s invasion by running interference on his behalf against Europe, by doing Putin’s bid in Kyiv asking for a ceasefire, and by financing Putin’s war with billions of dollars’ worth of energy purchases.

But such double-dealing is a slippery slope. Orbán is disdained across Europe and on June 9 was rebuked by Hungarian voters in the European elections who rallied behind his anti-corruption opponent.

“Orbán is trying to break out of political no man’s land in the EU, and showing a more open approach toward Kyiv would be key in this regard,” said Zgut-Przybylska a professor with the Polish Academy of Sciences. “He won’t be able to ‘Occupy Brussels’ as he vows.”

Meanwhile, Zelensky dealt with Hungary in his stride.

“We need to organize a constructive meeting between our countries, because we have common borders, we are neighbors, and we need to talk,” he has said graciously.

To its credit, Hungary hosts 50,000 Ukrainian refugees and last week Kyiv announced funds to provide schooling for its children there. But political discussions were “frank” and he has pressed Orbán to explain his resistance to Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union. “I asked him to give me just one reason,” Mr. Zelensky said. “Not three, not five, not 10, just one reason, and I’m waiting for an answer.”

Orbán won’t be forthcoming but he won’t make a U-turn either, said Professor Zgut-Przybylska: “Orban has been playing this ‘peacock’ dance for a decade, and Hungary’s energy dependency on Russia will remain stronger than ever.”

Reprinted from dianefrancis@substack.com – Diane Francis on America and the World.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.