OPINION: Europe's Gathering Storm

French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world on Feb. 26 by suggesting that Europeans may have to send troops to help Ukraine. Then on May 4, he doubled-down and said French troops would go to Ukraine if Kyiv requested their help. He also described Europe as “mortal” and said that “things can fall apart very quickly” because the US is no longer guarantor of Europe’s security. “I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,” Macron said.

“If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe. Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?” His clarion call was echoed by the leader of Europe’s other nuclear power, Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who said “if Putin is allowed to succeed in this war of aggression, he will not stop at the Polish border.”

A sudden pivot to panic grips Europeans following America’s weapons delays and as waves of Russian “cannon fodder” are starting to breach the front line. The new realization is that this war is not only about weapons but about manpower. On May 4, controversial military strategist Edward Luttwak wrote: “The arithmetic of this is inescapable: NATO countries will soon have to send soldiers to Ukraine, or else accept catastrophic defeat.”

Constant waves of attacks. LeMonde

Another 1939 moment of truth has arrived for Europe. Ukrainians have borne the brunt and direct confrontation between Russia and NATO members has been avoided thus far, but is becoming unavoidable. The US already has 40,000 troops stationed on behalf of NATO in Europe, but won’t spare more, given its global responsibilities and concerns about the Middle East and China. The European Union has more defense dollars and the same size number of “active” military personnel as Russia (estimated at 1.1 million in Europe versus 1 million in Russia according to armforces.eu). Add to that Britain’s sizeable military force. But a unitary fighting force, under NATO, must be forged.

Fortunately, Britain and France have stepped up, but other countries, particularly populous Germany, Italy, and Spain, must mobilize too.

“If Europe cannot provide enough troops, Russia will prevail on the battlefield, and even if diplomacy successfully intervenes to avoid a complete debacle, Russian military power will have victoriously returned to Central Europe,” wrote Luttwak.

“At that point, Western European powers will have to rebuild their armed forces, whether they like it or not, starting with the return of compulsory military service.”

Not everyone shares Luttwak’s pessimism about the war’s outcome, but Ukraine struggles with ammunition shortages, casualties, bombing raids, and its own reluctance for two years to draft young men to replenish its ranks. On the battlefield, it is outnumbered three to one, but Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army Europe, believes that Russia cannot win. “Russian forces do not have the capability.” He told Al Jazeera Russia has limited mobility on the ground and lacks the equipment and expertise to move forward.

“That’s why I feel fairly confident that the mission for [Ukrainian] general Oleksandr Syrskyi for the next several months is to stabilize this as much as he can to buy time for Ukraine to grow the size of the army, to rebuild the defense industry of Ukraine, as well as give us time to find more ammunition for them…the army has got to buy time.”

Europeans must mobilize. Russia cannot take on multiple European countries at once, much less start a nuclear war, which is why it was also significant that France’s Macron offered to share his nuclear weapons with NATO. Then Britain’s PM Sunak made a tentative deal with Poland to place its tactical nukes there in future, as Russia did in neighboring Belarus.

Last week, the British also gave Ukraine permission to use its long-range missiles to attack inside Russian territory, and Sunak announced that Britain will transfer 16,000 soldiers to Poland and provide jets to patrol its airspace.

“Poland [like Ukraine] is at the heart of ensuring security throughout Europe. It’s time to end the period of competition and competition between various initiatives for the defense of Europe,” said the Prime Minister.

France also quietly trains hundreds of elite troops in “high intensity” urban warfare who will be sent to Romania in order to patrol and protect the Black Sea area and Odesa, a critically important trade hub. “That’s his [Macron’s] red line because if Odesa is overrun, then 20 percent of Ukraine’s GDP disappears down the tube,” commented a former Lieutenant Colonel in the British Army. Likewise, Norway is doubling the size of its navy and has begun to, along with other European countries, patrol and fortify the Baltic Sea area against Russian incursions or attacks.

What’s interesting is that these escalatory actions dovetail with NATO’s massive war exercise, which has just begun, to practice repelling a hypothetical Russian invasion of a NATO member. Called Steadfast Defender 24, the coordinated counter-defense effort is the largest conducted by NATO since the Cold War ended and will test run Europe’s new defense plans. More than 90,000 soldiers and sailors from its 32 member states will be involved from now until June. Frankly, it’s a small “dress rehearsal” for war against Russia.

Steadfast Defender 24, land, sea, and air exercises

Last month, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and former President of Norway, also proposed a $100 billion, five-year fund to support Ukraine’s military be established by the Organization’s 32 members. “I believe we need a major, multi-year financial commitment to sustain our support. To demonstrate that our support to Ukraine is not short-term and ad hoc, but long-term and predictable. Moscow must understand: They cannot win. And they cannot wait us out,” he said.

Tragically, Putin’s “meat grinder” continues to devastate Ukraine and a Russian counter-attack looms in June to try and conquer the rest of Ukraine. An estimated 500,000 have died or been wounded, mostly Russians, but there remains more than half a million Russian troops and personnel inside Ukraine. Putin has escalated air attacks and some have crossed into Polish, Romanian, and Moldovan airspace or landed close to their borders. This led Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk to declare last week that Europe was now in a “pre-war era” and that NATO members are considering counter-attacks against Russian missiles, jets, and drones.

The Kremlin responds with nuclear threats and has recently begun claiming that NATO is already in “direct confrontation” with Russia. In February, after Macron’s initial remarks, Putin warned against sending NATO troops to Ukraine. Last month, following a leak about French troops training to go into Ukraine, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin said that these 2,000 French troops being prepared will be a priority target for attacks by Russian armed forces. “This means that they will suffer the fate of all the French who have ever come to the Russian world with a sword,” he said.

The meat grinder. Euronews

Last week, Poland boldly stated that it was “ready” to host NATO nuclear weapons should the alliance move to reinforce its eastern flank bordering Russia. “If our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of nuclear sharing also on our territory to strengthen the security of NATO’s eastern flank, we are ready for it,” said President Andrzej Duda.

Given the heightening rhetoric, it’s likely that the deployment of tens of thousands of European troops as part of the Steadfast Defender 24 war exercise won’t be a temporary exercise. It will be the stage one preparation for an eventual direct conflict with Russia. The participating 90,000 to 120,000 NATO troops will be strategically scattered across the continent by June, when Putin is supposed to unleash his counter-offensive. And they will likely remain, guarding trade and energy hubs, essential infrastructure, and patrolling the borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Transnistria (a breakaway region in Moldova occupied by Russian forces). Some will clandestinely slip into Ukraine to fight, advise, or undertake tasks in order to free up more Ukrainian troops for combat.

This is 1939 all over again. Storm clouds gather and a shadow European Armed Force is being created to save Ukraine and Europe from Vladimir Putin.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.

Reprinted from dianefrancis@substack.com – Diane Francis on America and the World

See the original here.