ANALYSIS: What Happens to Ukraine Now After Trump’s Victory? Ceding Territories, Probably

With former US President Donald Trump soon returning to the Oval Office after the latest elections, many are concerned Washington’s support for Ukraine could wither. 

While that remains a likely scenario based on previous statements and actions by Trump and his running mate JD Vance, nothing is set in stone – and Trump’s unpredictability can still turn things around. 

Trump, Vance’s stance on Ukraine 

As things stand, Trump and Vance are not particularly supportive of Ukraine – nor further aid for Ukraine, for that matter. 

Judging by the statements by both, support for Ukraine under the upcoming Trump presidency is pessimistic at best – JD Vance is against supporting Ukraine militarily and called for the country to become a neutral state, a notion aligning with the Kremlin’s initial war goal that’s been rejected by Kyiv’s other Western allies – as well as Kyiv itself. 

Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war if elected – including during his victory speech – “in 24 hours” by offering both Kyiv and Moscow “a deal” – but what that deal would be is anyone’s guess. 

Trump’s relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also tumultuous at best. 

Trump spoke disfavorably of Zelensky at times, likening him to a “salesman” when the latter requested US support to help defend Ukraine. Zelensky was also a key figure in Trump’s 2019 impeachment scandal, though it’s unclear if that affected their relations. The two also appeared to have reached some kind of consensus on the war after a recent meeting in September.

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That said, Trump did authorize sales of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine during his presidency – the very same missiles eventually used to defeat Russian tanks in the ongoing war. 

But if Trump and Vance are to stick to their words, meaning reduced or no aid for Ukraine with the goal of ending the war swiftly, the logical conclusion would be coercing Ukraine to give up territories in exchange for peace – A deal, if you may. 

In this scenario – perhaps – the war ends. Trump declares peace brokered. But whether Russia will invade again, as some speculate is, again, anyone’s guess. 

Will the war in Ukraine end?

At the end of the day, it’s a war between Ukraine and Russia – and only they can decide when and how the war should end. 

That said, the US has been a major backer of Ukraine’s defense against Russia – albeit with significant delays – which means potentially reduced US support under Trump would likely significantly degrade Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s invasion.

With the recent battlefield setbacks suffered by Ukrainian troops, decreased supplies of ammo and weapons could mean a major setback in its capabilities – but Kyiv’s European allies have been stepping up, and that support might be able to fill in the gaps. 

As Kyiv Post reported in September, European support for Ukraine outmatches the US by practically all metrics, as opposed to what Trump claimed. 

Kyiv’s goal – which remains unswayed thus far – is to liberate all its occupied territories. If support from other allies is enough for that endeavor, Ukraine still may have a fair chance against Russia without US support. 

Trump’s Unpredictability 

For better or worse, many have described Trump as unpredictable – a trait that could work in Ukraine’s favor, however unlikely. 

Interpret it however you will, but the Kremlin’s spokesperson claimed that he believed Trump could alter his stance on Ukraine drastically after returning to the Oval Office. 

But that unpredictability is a Catch-22 – the only thing proving he’s unpredictable is his previous unpredictable acts, including the time he threatened, then made amends with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and no one really knows how that unpredictability would go.  

Are there signs that suggest Trump’s unpredictability could translate to steadfast support for Ukraine, considering he also boasted a good relationship with Putin? Only time will tell.