Kamala Harris, the most likely candidate to be the Democratic nominee now that Joe Biden has bowed out of the US presidential election, will probably stay strong in support of Ukraine battling Russian aggression and maintain NATO’s vigilance, while perhaps reining in support for the Netanyahu government’s policies toward Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
While support for Ukraine would likely be at least as solid as Biden’s, specifics about how weapons and platforms can be used against military, industrial and energy infrastructure targets in Russia itself is yet to be revealed.
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Some general insight
According to Reuters: “In the second half of Biden’s presidency, Harris – the country’s first Black and Asian American vice president – has elevated her profile on issues ranging from China and Russia to Gaza and become a known quantity to many world leaders.”
Politico assesses that in most areas, she would likely continue many of Biden’s foreign policy objectives: “A Harris administration would probably offer strong support for Ukraine’s war effort and continue initiatives to deepen alliances in Asia and the Pacific in the face of China’s geopolitical ascendance. And she would likely still see the US provide robust support to Israel and other allies in the Middle East.”
But Politico added that “regarding Israel’s war on Hamas, Harris has sounded more sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians, a stance that could mollify Arab-American voters and others who are troubled by Biden’s support for Israel’s war effort in Gaza.”
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As Vice President, Politico noted, Harris has often stepped in as a surrogate for the president at world gatherings.
- Harris attended the 2023 ASEAN summit in Biden’s place
- Harris stood in for Biden at the annual Munich Security Conference in 2022, when she voiced support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as Russia prepared to invade
- Harris again stood in for Biden at the 2023 Munich Security Conference after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
- Harris represented the US at the Summit for Peace in Ukraine, held in Switzerland this year
Ukraine needs our support. And we must give it.
Ukraine, NATO and Russia
According to Phillips P. O’Brien, an American historian and Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, Scotland: “If you look at who has been advising her, particularly her National Security Adviser while VP, Philip Gordon, you can see how she might be interested in following a more assertive pro-Ukraine, anti-Putin line than Biden and his equivalent Jake Sullivan.
“Even looking at her Deputy National Security Adviser, Rebecca Friedman Lissner, you can see glimpses of a harder line policy on Russia possibly emerging.”
During this year’s Munich Security Conference, Harris slammed Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and pledged an “ironclad” US commitment to NATO’s Article 5 requirement for mutual self-defense, Reuters wrote. Harris also reiterated the Biden administration’s pledge of supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”
“Frankly, she has been stress-tested,” Adam Smith (D-WA) a Congressional representative and member of the House Armed Services Committee said in an interview during the Republican National Convention.
Politico noted that Harris has been a strong backer of Ukraine in its defense against Russia and is expected to mostly continue many of Biden’s policies.
Harris represented the US at the Summit for Peace in Ukraine, where she had her sixth meeting with Zelensky.
In an interview this year with NBC News she said: “Ukraine needs our support. And we must give it.”
She has criticized Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians as “crimes against humanity” and pledged to hold authorities in Moscow accountable.
“To all those who have perpetrated these crimes, and to their superiors who are complicit in those crimes, you will be held to account,” Harris said at the 2023 Munich Security Conference.
More recently, Harris has criticized former US president and current Republican nominee Donald Trump for his previous comments claiming that he would pull the US out of NATO, according to Politico.
“Donald Trump has embraced Putin,” Harris said at a recent campaign stop in North Carolina. “It’s not just happening today. It’s been happening, as he, Trump, threatened to abandon NATO and encouraged Putin to invade our Allies.”
According to Reuters this week: “The Kremlin said on Monday that Harris had made no noteworthy contribution to relations with Moscow except for statements ‘unfriendly towards our country.’ She has accused Russia of waging a ‘barbaric and inhumane’ war in Ukraine.”
Vladimir Putin can no longer be certain that he can outlast the American commitment to European stability and to the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Discussing President Biden’s recent decision to no longer seek re-election in November, Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian and Professor of Public Service at New York University, remarked in an interview with Foreign Affairs:
“I actually think that President Biden’s very difficult decision [Sunday] has restored some of the luster to the American commitment to Ukraine and to stabilizing other parts of the world.
Naftali said: “I’d argue that, for the moment at least, foreign leaders have to take seriously the possibility that [a Democrat] will be leading the United States, meaning that they may be able to count on support for Ukraine…”
“So, the fact that now the internationalist party has an improved chance to win, will necessarily alter the calculations of foreign leaders. [Russian President] Vladimir Putin can no longer be certain that he can outlast the American commitment to European stability and to the sovereignty of Ukraine.”
Israel, Gaza and the Middle East
Harris appears to be more openly sympathetic to the plight of Palestinian civilians suffering in Gaza, and less inclined than Biden to acquiesce to Israel’s policies under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is widely thought to be one reason why Biden’s approval had slipped into the 30-percent bracket, especially among more progressive voters and those under 35.
Politico notes that Harris had been less hawkish as a Senator than Biden on US military presence in the Middle East. She took tough stances against some nations, including toward Saudi Arabia, India and Turkey, which could complicate her interactions with allies in the Middle East and Asia.
On the issue of Israel, Harris has voiced support for a two-state solution as a senator and backed the Abraham Accords, according to Politico. As vice president, Harris privately said that the Biden administration needed to take a stronger stance against Netanyahu as the civilian death count rose dramatically in Israel’s war against Hamas.
Publicly, Politico said, “Harris emerged as one of the earliest high-profile leaders in the administration to call for an immediate temporary cease-fire in March. She delivered the sharpest rebuke against Israel’s handling of aid flows into the Gaza Strip at the time by a senior leader and described the conflict as a ‘humanitarian catastrophe’ for innocent civilians.”
According to Politico: “Tariq Habash, who was a Biden policy adviser in the Education Department before resigning over the administration’s Israel policy, said he’s ‘cautiously optimistic’ that Harris would be more willing to consider policy changes that center Palestinian human rights and curb Israel’s continued actions in Gaza and elsewhere.”
Josh Paul, a former State Department official involved with transferring arms to American allies, said that Harris seems less “fixed and intransigent” than Biden on Israeli policy, while acknowledging: “There’s only so much any US president can do to change policy toward Israel in the short term,” Politico reported.
“I have cautious and limited optimism – but also a deep sense of relief that the Democratic party will not be nominating for the presidency of the United States a man who has made us all complicit in so much and such unnecessary harm,” Paul said.
Harris has been critical of nations who act outside international norms, even if they are sometimes allied with US foreign policy.
Harris joined progressives in the US Senate and House of Representatives on legislation restricting arms sales and military assistance to Saudi Arabia due to its role in the Yemeni civil war and the killing of Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
Harris also supported legislation to officially recognize the Armenian genocide of 1915-1916, which fellow NATO member Turkey did not want to be recognized or commemorated.
We will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, consistent with our long-standing policy.
China, East Asia and the Western Pacific
Harris would likely continue the Biden administration’s tough policy on China if elected president, with some more detailed specifics.
According to Reuters: “On China, Harris has long positioned herself within Washington’s bipartisan mainstream on the need for the US to counter China’s influence, especially in Asia. She would likely maintain Biden’s stance of confronting Beijing when necessary while also seeking areas of cooperation, analysts say.”
Harris has made several trips to bolster economic relations in the region, including “one to Jakarta in September to fill in for Biden at a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).” During the visit, Harris accused China of trying to intimidate other nations in the region through spurious territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea.
Harris traveled in Biden’s place to reassure allies Japan and South Korea, which worry about Trump’s commitment to their security.
“She demonstrated to the region that she was enthusiastic to promote the Biden focus on the Indo-Pacific,” said Murray Hiebert, a senior associate of the Southeast Asia Program at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, Reuters reported.
According to Politico, while a senator, she “criticized Trump’s approach to Beijing, telling Vice President Mike Pence during the vice presidential debate in 2020 that Trump ‘lost that trade war’ and that his tariffs hurt the American economy without rebalancing the US-China relationship.”
“It’s not about pulling out, but it is about ensuring that we are protecting American interests, and that we are a leader in terms of the rules of the road, as opposed to following others’ rules,” Harris said in an interview with CBS last year.
A Harris administration would likely continue unofficial support for the self-governing island, especially in the wake of increasing Chinese military threats. In September 2022, she said “we will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, consistent with our long-standing policy.”
As vice president, Harris has spoken with both Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te.
Harris also has criticized China’s Coast Guard harassment of Philippine shipping in Manila’s waters in the South China Sea.
Apart from China, as Senator, Harris closely monitored East Asian developments and “regularly introduced or co-sponsored bipartisan legislation promoting human rights in Myanmar,” Politico noted.
She has criticized Trump’s general attitude toward North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – specifically for not doing enough to curb Kim’s nuclear threats.
As for the South Asian subcontinent and the world’s most populous nation, from which Harris’ mother emigrated:
“Harris, whose mother was Indian, also regularly criticized the Indian government as a senator and met with members of the Kashmiri diaspora. Ties between Harris and the government of Narendra Modi seemingly have smoothed over, with Modi praising Harris during a 2023 state visit to Washington,” wrote Politico.
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