ANALYSIS: Another Throw of the Dice – Russia Deploys Prometheus Anti-Missile System to Crimea

Speaking to the TV telethon on June 12, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate (HUR) said Russia had already placed elements of their latest S-500 air defense missile system in Crimea and around the Kerch bridge that links the peninsula to the mainland.

“This will, in principle, be an experimental application…. Kerch Bridge is always used, and as long as it’s there, it will be used.” He said that the move was “quite expected” since the Kremlin has been moving additional air defense assets on the peninsula to make up for the losses it has been suffering from Ukrainian long-range ATACMS ballistic missile attacks.

In April, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to deploy new air and missile defenses including the S-500 Prometheus, for which 10 were ordered in 2021, as well as additional S-400, S-300V4, Buk-M3, and Tor-M2U anti-aircraft missile systems, along with new generation radars “before the year’s end.” The emphasis on air defense systems highlighted the concern Moscow felt about the increase in Ukrainian capabilities from long-range missiles and drones.

This has been given new urgency as Ukraine’s Western allies authorized the use of their weapons against military targets on mainland Russia and the vulnerabilities they have exposed as a result.

In the last week alone Ukraine’s General Staff reported successful attacks against Russian S-300 and S-400 sites, one near Dzhankoy – a key road and rail hub in northern Crimea, and two sites near Chornomorske and Yevpatoria, in the west of the peninsula as well as a site in Russia's Belgorod region earlier in the month. Satellite imagery seemed to confirm that launchers, radar stations and command post were destroyed, for which Russian military bloggers say ATACMS were responsible.

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What is Prometheus?

The Prometey (Russian for Prometheus) system, also known as 55R6M Triumfator-M, is intended to provide theater ballistic missile defense and other long-range air defense cover. It was originally developed to provide a mobile, more flexible replacement for the A-135 anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system deployed in silos around Moscow. It can also be configured for the air defense role.

The S-500 is claimed to have a range of 600 kilometers (370 miles against ballistic missiles and 500 kilometers (310 miles) for air defense. The manufacturer, Almaz-Antey, says it was designed to detect and simultaneously engage up to 10 ballistic hypersonic targets flying at 7,000 meters (4.3 miles) a second at altitudes of more than 180 kilometers (110 miles). They also say it could engage low Earth orbit satellites and weapons platforms with a response time of less than 4 seconds, more than half that of the S-400 Triumf.

The S-500 consists of six separate but linked components: the 77P6 launch vehicle, 55K6MA and 85Zh6-2 command posts, the 91N6A(M) acquisition and battle management radar, the 96L6-TsP acquisition radar, the 76T6 multimode and 77T6 ABM engagement radars.  The elements are all mounted on BAZ multi-wheeled trucks or trailers.

It can fire either the 40N6M missile in the air defense role or the 77N6 / 77N6-N1 - anti-ballistic / anti-satellite missile. The latter is said to be a hypersonic interceptor missile but the experts disagree on whether it is a “hittile” that uses a direct kinetic strike to destroy the target or one that explodes when comes into proximity with its target, hoping its fragmentation will damage the incoming missile sufficiently to destroy it.

Like many of the wonder weapons and latest systems Russia has deployed out of desperation in its war in Ukraine, they have yet to be proven in the field, often with a failure to replicate their performance during testing. The S-500, for instance, was said to have successfully hit an airborne target at a range of 482 kilometers (300 miles) during testing in 2018.

Reading between the lines of Budanov’s comments, it seems likely that only certain, unspecified, components will have currently been deployed to Crimea rather than complete complexes to shore up its air defenses. It remains to be seen whether they will have any more success than their supposedly inferior older forebears.