ANALYSIS: Joe Biden Seems Headed for Defeat: Ukraine Could Change That Outcome

There is a paradigm that election campaigns are about selling voters one of two messages: the incumbent wants the electorate to buy the idea that his second term will deliver hope; whereas the challenger wishes to peddle the notion that the country needs change.

Recent polling shows that Americans want change at the White House. RealClearPolitics, an American website that aggregates political polling and news, indicates that in all seven battleground states, where voters could go Democrat or Republican, Donald Trump is wining, mirroring a trend nationally, where Trump is beating Biden 48% vs 46.% as the table below shows.

When diving deeper into the numbers, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue should be alarmed. Only 24% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction against 66% who think that America is on the wrong track – a statistic that bleeds over onto Biden’s remarkably low approval rating at 40% versus 56% who say they disapprove of his work performance.

Since 1945, when presidential polling began to be tracked, no American president, during this point in their first term, has ever had approval ratings as low as Joe Biden’s.

Translating that into what it means in an election year: In nearly 80 years of polling data, no president has ever won a second term with numbers as bad as Biden’s.

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How abysmal are Biden’s numbers? At this exact point, day 1,221 of their presidencies, according to FiveThirtyEight, a news and statistics website, the approval rating of the past 11 presidents was as shown in the diagrams below:

Donald Trump 42%; Barack Obama 48%; George W Bush 45%; Bill Clinton 54%; George H.W. Bush 40%; Ronald Reagan 55%; Jimmy Carter 41%; Richard Nixon 55%; Lyndon Johnson 45%; Dwight D. Eisenhower 70%; and Harry Truman with 39%. Presidents Gerald Ford and John Kennedy did not make it this far through their first term, but both had polling numbers superior to Biden’s.

The disaster on the hands of America’s 81.5-year-old President, who has broken Reagan’s record of being just shy of 77 at the start of his second term, something that worries 86% of voters, is that there are no issues on which he has even half of America’s support.

In relation to Biden’s handling of the conflict in Israel, 33% approve of the job he is doing; 40% approve of his attempts to boost the economy; 35% approve of his handling of inflation; 36% approve his strategy in foreign policy; 39% say he is doing a good job in combatting crime; and 33% think he is doing a good job managing immigration.

At this late stage, 164 days before the elections, Joe Biden is in a tough spot. There is the off chance that Trump’s legal problems or health could prevent his being able to make a comeback. However, “hoping for the best” is a lousy strategy for success.

The key to interpreting polls is to look at the trends over time: Are they trending up or down? At this point, if there is not a radical shake-up, then the trend is definitively suggesting a Biden defeat.

The President urgently needs a major paradigm shift to pull himself out of the gutter: Ukraine winning could be just the recipe for Biden to clinch victory.

Most Americans support Ukraine; however, polling indicates that they do not understand what is happening in the war. Americans are not keen to understand the details – they just want to see Ukraine win.

Biden, today, could lift restrictions on the weapons America sends to Ukraine and authorize Ukraine to use them in Russian territory, which would produce tangible battlefield victories. If Ukraine were to begin re-taking lands and military bases in Russia began to disappear in smoke, American voters would think of Biden as having finally called the pivotal shots that were needed to hasten the long-awaited Ukraine win, thus classifying Biden as being “a winner.”

Some around Biden, such as National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, a lawyer, have been overly cautious, weakly communicating to Americans what is at stake in Ukraine other than mumbling about the need to “prevent escalation.” This nature of public handwringing over fears of defeating Putin are suffocating Biden’s chance at re-election as it sends mixed messages to the American people.

Americans love decisive actions, taken by leaders, to win. Beating the Russian Army is a significant accomplishment that would show Biden as a fearless warrior ready to fight for America’s interests globally.

The White House must understand that there are only two possible routes ahead: Allow Ukraine to do what is needed to win, now, or Biden alone will be to blame for paving the way for Trump’s return to the White House. Which is the greater threat, in Biden’s own eyes, to America and Ukraine’s national security: Ukraine liberating its territory and defeating Russia, or Trump reclaiming the Oval Office?

If Biden wishes to hear Hail to the Chief when from February of 2025 on, he must not delay in untying Ukraine’s hands, allowing it to strike-back at the Russian aggressors.