50 Russians Died for Every Kilometer of Ukraine Captured

Russia continues to suffer devastating manpower losses for limited territorial gains during its intensified offensive operations in recent months, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In its latest report, ISW estimated that Russian forces sustained more than 125,000 casualties between September and November while only securing around 2,356 square kilometers (910 square miles) of territory.

That was the equivalent of “… approximately 53 Russian casualties per square kilometer [0.4 square miles] of Ukrainian territory seized,” the report said.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence cited Ukrainian General Staff data that showed Russian casualties peaked at an average of 1,523 personnel a day in November, an all-time high, with more than 2,000 in a single day for the first time on Nov. 28.

Throughout November alone, Russian forces suffered an estimated 45,690 casualties, with ISW data indicating this period saw Russian forces seizing roughly 28 square kilometers (10.8 square miles) per day, for a total across the whole front line including in Russia’s Kursk region, of 839 square kilometers (324 square miles). According to the UK Defence Ministry, this marked the fifth consecutive month of rising Russian casualty rates.

The ISW also reported that in September and October 2024, Russian forces gained 1,517 square kilometers (586 square miles) while incurring 80,110 casualties in Ukraine and the Kursk region.

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The Ukrainian military regularly reports that Russian forces are resorting to ‘meat assaults,’ sending wounded or poorly trained fighters into battle as cannon fodder.

Russian recruitment gaps

ISW reported that Russia’s labor constraints make it unlikely that the Kremlin can sustain these casualty rates over the medium term. Western military aid remains critical to enabling Ukraine to impose such heavy losses on Russian forces.

US officials estimated in late October that Russia was recruiting between 25,000 and 30,000 military personnel each month. Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk said on Dec. 3 that Russia would need to recruit between 50,000 and 52,000 soldiers monthly if it continued to sustain the current casualty rates while continuing its offensive in the Donetsk region.

Chernyk suggested that the Russian Ministry of Defense may have increased the rates it pays to recruits recently. However, even at elevated levels, Russia’s recruitment efforts still fall short of meeting its growing monthly casualty figures, ISW reported.

Efforts to ramp up force generation threaten to destabilize Russia's economy further, which is already grappling with labor shortages and rising inflation. According to ISW, Russia faces a grim trade-off: manpower to sustain the war effort comes at the expense of its domestic economy, and vice versa.

“Russians can either serve in uniform in Ukraine or work in Russia’s domestic economy, but they cannot do both simultaneously,” the report read.

The National Resistance Center (NRC) reports that Russia has failed to meet its 2024 recruitment goal among Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories.

According to the NRC, Russian authorities aimed to conscript 10,000 Ukrainians into their armed forces in 2024 but have only managed to recruit 4,000 by the beginning of December.

The majority of those recruited are from areas occupied by Russia since 2014. Resistance among local populations, unwilling to fight against Ukraine, has significantly hindered Russian efforts. Even increasing the one-time enlistment bonus to 400,000 rubles ($4,040) failed to attract sufficient recruits, the NRC report noted.

In October, Russia intensified mobilization efforts in occupied Ukrainian territories, conducting daily raids on public spaces and enforcing filtration measures at checkpoints. The NRC highlighted one such raid in occupied Mariupol, underscoring the coercive tactics used to meet conscription targets.

A relative of Russian President Vladimir Putin may have accidentally revealed a sensitive figure shedding light on Russia's war casualties in Ukraine.

In a video shared by the Russian Astra Telegram channel, Anna Tsivilyova, reportedly the daughter of Putin's cousin and a deputy defense minister, stated that 48,000 relatives had submitted DNA samples in an effort to track down missing soldiers.

Russian Defense committee chief Andrei Kartapolov immediately urged her not to disclose such figures, calling the information “sensitive and closed.”

It remains unclear whether the number refers to individual missing soldiers or total appeals. Russia considers war casualty figures to be classified. Independent sources such as the BBC and Mediazona have documented 80,000 Russian soldiers as being confirmed as killed since February 2022 but estimate the true number to be much higher.